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In one of the most eventful trading days of 2025, global financial markets were hit with a perfect storm of bullish catalysts and yet Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to rally.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis-point rate cut, officially ending its quantitative tightening program, while a breakthrough U.S.–China trade deal restored optimism in global trade. Meanwhile, major U.S. indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 surged to all-time highs.
Still, Bitcoin remains stubbornly capped under $116,000, baffling investors who expected these events to trigger a breakout. This paradox has sparked frustration across the crypto community, with many dubbing it the “shittiest bull market ever.”
1. Macroeconomic Boost: Why Bitcoin Should Be Rising
Normally, such developments are a recipe for higher risk-asset prices:
A Fed rate cut reduces borrowing costs and typically boosts appetite for risk assets like equities and crypto.
The end of QT means the Fed is no longer shrinking its balance sheet, adding liquidity back into markets.
A U.S.–China trade agreement alleviates fears of global slowdown and supply-chain disruptions.
Major stock indices hitting new all-time highs usually lift investor sentiment across all sectors.
Yet, despite these bullish macro signals, Bitcoin’s inability to break past $116K shows that macro optimism alone isn’t enough to push the crypto higher at least for now.
2. Why Bitcoin Isn’t Reacting: A Perfect Storm of Friction
a. Profit-Taking and Market Exhaustion
After a strong year-to-date rally, many long-term holders are taking profits. This creates constant selling pressure every time BTC nears a key resistance level.
b. Institutional Caution
While institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity continue to accumulate via Bitcoin ETFs, many are hedging positions amid uncertainty about future Fed policy and upcoming U.S. elections.
c. Correlation Shift
Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has weakened. Even though stocks are rising, BTC appears stuck in its own liquidity and sentiment cycle.
d. Liquidity Drain from Altcoins and Stablecoins
Analysts note that liquidity across major exchanges remains lower than pre-2022 levels. Capital rotation into traditional markets may be limiting inflows into digital assets.
The long-tail keywords include “Bitcoin fails to break resistance despite Fed rate cut”, “crypto market reaction to QT ending and trade deal”, and “Bitcoin correlation with U.S. stocks 2025”.
3. Broader Implications: Confidence Gap in the Bull Market
Traders are calling this a “weak bull market” one where macro policy is supportive, but momentum feels absent.
While traditional markets are celebrating a liquidity-driven boom, crypto investors are increasingly skeptical about how Bitcoin will perform once the initial stimulus enthusiasm fades.
This disconnect reflects broader market psychology: optimism for the economy doesn’t always translate into speculative risk-taking in crypto.
Another long-tail keyword: “Bitcoin underperforms despite bullish macro conditions 2025.”
4. What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin’s current stagnation is a sign of consolidation before a breakout or the start of a deeper correction.
Bullish view: The macro backdrop, ETF inflows, and easing policy could soon push Bitcoin beyond $120,000 once short-term resistance breaks.
Bearish view: Until on-chain data shows renewed accumulation, Bitcoin may remain range-bound or even retest $100,000.
Watch for:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s next remarks on policy outlook
ETF inflow data and exchange liquidity trends
Altcoin strength as a sign of broader crypto risk appetite
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Why is Bitcoin not rising despite a Fed rate cut?
A1: Many traders have already priced in the rate cut. Also, profit-taking and reduced liquidity in crypto markets are keeping Bitcoin from rallying even as macro conditions improve.
Q2: What does the end of QT mean for Bitcoin?
A2: It’s generally positive it signals more liquidity and risk-taking in markets. However, the impact may take weeks to reflect in crypto prices.
Q3: How does the U.S.–China trade deal affect Bitcoin?
A3: It improves global risk sentiment but has limited direct impact on crypto. The positive spillover could eventually attract more institutional inflows.
Q4: Why are U.S. stocks hitting new highs while Bitcoin lags?
A4: Traditional equities benefit immediately from liquidity and strong earnings, while crypto remains more sentiment-driven and speculative.
Q5: Is this really a bull market for Bitcoin?
A5: Technically yes, since BTC remains well above last year’s lows. But without momentum or new capital inflows, it feels unusually weak for a bull phase.
Q6: Could Bitcoin still break $116,000 soon?
A6: It’s possible if ETF inflows rise, the dollar weakens, or risk appetite improves. But for now, resistance remains strong near that level.
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