In a bold move that could reshape the exchange landscape, Coinbase is reportedly building its own prediction markets platform, powered by Kalshi’s regulated infrastructure, according to technology researcher Jane Manchun Wong. The project appears to align with Coinbase’s vision of becoming an “everything exchange” by branching into real-world event contracts.
Screenshots revealed by Wong show a Coinbase-branded interface offering event categories like economics, sports, science and politics; the asset input options include USDC and USD. The interface is said to be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets the derivatives arm of the exchange in partnership with Kalshi.
What the Screenshots & Partnership Reveal
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The snapshots show Coinbase’s logo front and centre, with clearly labelled market categories (e.g., “Will inflation exceed X?”) and an onboarding guide.
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This would mark a major expansion for Coinbase into regulated event-contract trading, utilising Kalshi’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed infrastructure.
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The use of USDC aligns with Coinbase’s push to create real-world use cases for stablecoins, while expansion into markets beyond simple crypto trading signals a broadening business model.
Why This Move Matters
1. Redefining Exchange Functionality
Prediction markets haven’t typically been part of mainstream crypto exchanges. Coinbase stepping into this arena signals an ambition to become more than a trading venue it aims to integrate derivatives, event contracts, and potentially asset tokenisation.
2. Regulatory Advantage Through Kalshi
By partnering with Kalshi, Coinbase appears to bypass some regulatory hurdles; Kalshi already operates under CFTC oversight for event contracts. This could provide Coinbase a faster path to offering U.S.-compliant prediction markets.
3. Strategic Timing Amid Industry Growth
The volume in prediction markets is surging. As players like Crypto.com and Gemini also move into this space, Coinbase’s early positioning may give it a competitive edge.
Key Considerations & Risks
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Nothing fully launched yet: The platform is still in early development with only leaked screenshots. No official launch date has been confirmed by Coinbase or Kalshi.
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Regulatory regulatory complexity: Event contracts and prediction markets often fall into murky regulatory territories (securities, gambling, futures). The partnership with Kalshi provides a path, but compliance risk remains.
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Operational execution matters: Building and launching a robust trading platform is technically and operationally challenging platform stability, liquidity, market-making, resolution mechanics all matter.
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User adoption and liquidity: Long-term viability will depend on attracting enough traders, ensuring liquid markets and delivering value that differentiates it from traditional options or futures.
What to Watch Going Forward
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Official announcements: Coinbase’s next earnings call or press release may provide confirmation or timeline updates.
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Launch details: Trading categories, resolution mechanisms, region availability, supported currencies (USDC/USD) and fee structures will matter.
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Partner disclosures: Kalshi may issue more detail on the collaboration and regulatory setup.
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Competitive responses: Watch how other exchanges (Gemini, Crypto.com) respond or accelerate their prediction-market efforts.
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User-interface leaks and beta launches: Further screenshots or beta launch invites could provide clues on timing and product depth.
FAQs
Q1: Has Coinbase officially launched its prediction markets platform?
Not yet. The development is based on leaked screenshots shared by tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong. Neither Coinbase nor Kalshi has published a full public launch announcement.
Q2: What kind of markets will it support?
Screenshots show markets in categories such as economics, politics, science and sports. Users may trade contracts denominated in USDC or USD.
Q3: Who will operate it and under what regulatory framework?
The platform appears to be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets (Coinbase’s derivatives arm) and uses Kalshi’s regulated infrastructure, which is registered under CFTC rules for event contracts.
Q4: Why is Coinbase entering prediction markets now?
Entering this space allows Coinbase to expand beyond traditional crypto trading. Prediction markets are seeing growth and provide new revenue streams, customer engagement and an opportunity to use stablecoins like USDC.
Q5: Are there risks for users?
Yes. Prediction markets may involve high risk, including complexity, contract resolution issues and potential regulatory changes. Users should ensure they understand how the product works once launched.
Q6: How might this impact the broader crypto exchange landscape?
If Coinbase successfully launches this product, it could push other exchanges to accelerate similar launches. This would deepen competition, increase innovation and potentially expand the use of event contracts in crypto markets.