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Surge in trading volume and liquidity
According to data compiled by market-analytics provider Token Terminal, Kalshi has amassed approximately $16.2 billion in total trading volume, ranking it ahead of many of its peers in the prediction-market space.
The growth has been particularly pronounced in recent months: in October 2025 alone, the platform reported more than $4 billion in trading volume a new monthly record.
This surge in activity has come as Kalshi expanded its offerings and improved liquidity, enabling smoother trade execution and attracting both retail and institutional participants.
What’s driving the boom?
Several key factors have converged to propel Kalshi’s rise:
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Diversified event contracts: Kalshi offers trading on a wide array of events from macroeconomic indicators and elections to sports outcomes and entertainment awards. This breadth is widening the pool of users.
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Sports-event dominance: Data show that sports-related contracts now account for over 70 % of Kalshi’s volume, overtaking non-sports categories and aligning the platform more closely with high-liquidity arenas.
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Regulatory clarity: Kalshi’s status as a regulated entity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gives it credibility and access that many offshore or decentralized competitors lack.
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Market momentum & user growth: As liquidity improves, trade execution becomes more efficient, creating positive network effects that draw in more participants and higher stakes.
Implications for prediction markets and broader finance
This milestone carries significance beyond just a big number. It reflects a deeper shift in how people engage with uncertainty and risk:
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New asset-class behaviour: With tens of billions in contracts being traded, event markets are increasingly behaving like financial markets rather than niche betting sites.
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Institutional access opens up: As liquidity and volume scale, institutional players may view platforms like Kalshi as viable for hedging or speculative allocation especially for macro or sports-themed exposures.
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Regulatory precedent: The success of a CFTC-regulated platform reaching these volumes may accelerate regulatory scrutiny and push other firms to seek similar licences or assurances.
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Liquidity attracts innovation: Higher volumes make markets more resilient andlcrobust, enabling Kalshi to experiment with new contract types (like custom parlays, tech-IPO probabilities) and expand globally.
Risks and watchers
Despite the strong headline, several caveats remain for traders, observers and regulators alike:
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State-regulatory friction: Though federally regulated under the CFTC, Kalshi’s sports-event contracts have drawn scrutiny from state-level gaming regulators particularly in jurisdictions where traditional sports betting is tightly regulated.
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Competition and margin pressure: As volumes climb and the market becomes more crowded (with rivals like Polymarket in the wings), fee structures and liquidity advantages may compress.
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Behavior vs fundamentals: Just because volume is high doesn’t guarantee profitable execution or that contract pricing always reflects fundamental risk rather than speculative mania.
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Risk of market-making/aggregation issues: Large volume spikes and concentrated contract types (e.g., sports) may raise concerns about market integrity, hedging-idiosyncrasy and regulatory responses.
FAQs
Q1: What exactly does the “$16 billion trading volume” for Kalshi represent?
It reflects the cumulative total of contracts traded on Kalshi’s platform since inception, as tracked by analytics providers. That figure (~$16.2 billion) covers all event categories and users’ positions.
Q2: Is this growth mostly from sports or other event types?
While Kalshi covers elections, economics and other non-sports events, recent data show that sports outcomes now constitute more than 70 % of its trading volume.
Q3: How does Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks?
Kalshi operates under the CFTC as a designated contract market, whereas many sportsbooks are licensed at the state level for gambling. Kalshi maintains it does not profit from “losing bets” in the same way sportsbooks do.
Q4: Does the $16 billion mean the platform is safe for large institutional players?
A higher volume is a positive signal for liquidity and institutional traction, but participants should still evaluate governance, market-making depth, regulatory exposures and contract-type risk before allocating capital.
Q5: Could other prediction-market platforms overtake Kalshi?
Yes. Competitors (for example Polymarket) are aggressively scaling, and regulatory developments or new contract innovations could shift market share. Also, Kalshi’s continued dominance is not guaranteed.
Q6: What should regulators and markets watch out for going forward?
Key areas include: state vs federal oversight of event contracts (especially sports); potential for contract manipulation or low liquidity in niche markets; clarity around how “prediction markets” differ from gambling under law; and how institutions engage with this new asset class.